NHS Harnesses Coronavirus Forecasting Tech To Help Save Lives
NHS teams are being given access to cutting-edge predictive technology to help them save lives by forecasting coronavirus hospitalisations.
As
the Government eases lockdown, the new Joint Biosecurity Centre is
being asked to give the NHS locally advance warning of any uptick in
coronavirus admissions.
This is being complimented by a machine learning-powered tool for the
NHS based on Bayesian hierarchical modelling to warn hospitals so they
can divert staff, beds and other equipment such as oxygen or ventilators
needed to tackle COVID-19 cases.
Despite many predictions to the contrary, the NHS was not overwhelmed by
the first wave of COVID-19, in which over 100,000 emergency coronavirus
patients have been cared for in hospital, while also providing urgent
services such as A&E, cancer and mental health.
Now the country is through the first phase of the virus, the NHS is
working to increase routine services that had to pause during the peak
of the epidemic, while also remaining ready to deal with smaller
localised outbreaks.
The rollout of the new technology, built and developed by artificial
intelligence firm Faculty, will help local teams balance these
priorities on a day to day basis, helping clinicians and scientists to
model and predict hospitalisations up to three weeks in
advance.
It works by learning from the data from previous outbreaks such as bed
use and early warning indicators such as 111 call volumes, to model what
might happen in the future.
Indra Joshi, director of AI at NHSX, said: “As
we continue to deal with the greatest public health emergency in a
century, the NHS continues to rise to the challenge, and by using this
leading
technology, we will help support frontline staff in their ongoing
mission to save as many lives as they can.
“This tool helps services plan the bringing back on of services for
other patients safely, while flexing capacity locally for COVID-19 care."
Health Secretary Matt Hancock said: “The COVID-19 pandemic has shown the power of technology to improve patient care.
“These innovative tools will help arm the NHS with the insight it needs to predict hospitalisations, weeks in advance and ensure hospitals are prepared.
“This is good news for patients and staff that puts the NHS at the forefront of cutting-edge coronavirus care - and demonstrates
the power that data has to protect the public and save lives.”
The forecasting tool is one part of a wider project known as the NHS
COVID-19 Data Store, an effort by NHS England and NHS Improvement and
NHSX to give local and national health leaders the information they need
to help tackle the virus and direct resources
to where they are needed most.
This technology has already helped provide the NHS at a national level a
clear understanding of bed capacity and availability across the
country, and has helped ensure ventilators and oxygen supply has been
targeted where it is needed so no hospital has run
out.
Now local hospitals have been given access to the new forecasting tool
that will help them to plan how to use their available capacity for both
Covid-19 patients and routine care and operations, with the benefit of
advance knowledge of how the need to care
for more or less patients with the virus might change in the coming one
to three weeks.
The data store is also helping with important new NHS research projects.
World-first research into how the virus impacted on some patients living
with diabetes, led by Professor Jonathan Valabhji, the NHS National Clinical Director for diabetes and obesity, was only possible because of
the datastore, and has enabled the health service
to provide new advice for millions of people to help keep them safe.
The data store also enabled Professor Ben Goldacre, of the University of
Oxford, and his team to undertake one of the largest studies to date on
risk factors associated with COVID-19 death.
To protect patient confidentiality all data used is either
pseudonymised, anonymised or aggregated and therefore does not identify
any individual, with strict processes in place to ensure the data, which
is owned by the NHS, is only used and viewed by those
who need to see it, and only for as long as it is needed.
The NHS is currently using Palantir, a private technology firm, to
support the work of the NHS COVID-19 datastore. The NHS has signed a new
four month contract with Palantir, which includes requirements to
package up the work they’ve been doing so the service
can go out to tender in an open procurement process.
Background:
The new Palantir contract will be published on Contracts Finder in due course:
- The contract was a direct award using the GCloud framework
- The contract contains the standard GCloud terms where relevant – any intellectual property rights derived from the work are reserved to the NHS.
- The NHS is the data controller at all times – Palantir is a data processor and is only permitted to use the data as directed by the NHS
- All data is de-identified or anonymised prior to loading into Palantir’s platform.